Steadying Voices and Hands  

Published in the Ouachita Citizen July 2023

We develop our human reasoning processes based upon our direct experiences, lessons learned from observing others, and exposure to history, literature, philosophy, religion, and other sources of knowledge. Social scientists tell us though that human beings have only bounded rationality and we often display cognitive biases in our thinking and reasoning.  

Much of our selective human perception is due to our deep immersion in a particular historical era and in cultures having distinct norms and values. We tend to take a whole lot for granted, partially due to our heavy reliance on messages from dominant media sources, whether these influencers have conservative or liberal viewpoints. More sensational or emotionally charged media messages usually attract greater reader and viewer attention than deeper, more reasoned analysis of issues and events.   

Ancient and later civilizations had limited lifespans and failed, because they inadequately responded to emerging internal and external threats. Polling suggests that Americans today strongly sense disturbing national and global threats, but we seem unable to find much political consensus on either threat priorities or resolution approaches. We often engage in what turn out to be fruitless political discourses that can leave us disappointed or even despairing. We can hardly blame those who are “turned off” and avoid many of these unpleasant and unproductive debates. The net result, though, seems to be fewer people who are well informed on many important public issues. 

Effectively addressing complex national and global challenges requires at least some degree of shared understanding or assumption grounding. To this end, Ray Dalio, the legendary investor and billionaire, offered some useful insights in a recent Time magazine article. He identifies five major forces that he claims threaten national and global survival: 1) record debt levels and central banking issues, 2) significant wealth and value disparities accompanied by rising populism, 3) escalating international tensions, especially between the U.S. and China, 4) the degradation of our natural environment and climate change, and 5) technological developments having profound, but uncertain or mixed, consequences. Dalio believes these forces auger significant changes in the world order that go well beyond the jarring circumstances that we have experienced recently. 

Economically, the U.S. and its allies are in a precarious debt position, with risks for massive and widespread economic instability that could lead to restructuring of global financial institutions and markets. Political extremism and growing division within many advanced nations, exacerbated by economic hardships for some, portend substantial conflict and civil unrest. Internationally, U.S.- China and other nation state disputes could escalate into dangerous economic and military conflicts. Acts of nature, associated with climate change and the incoming El Niño phase, will likely cause substantial damage, particularly for those residing in vulnerable regions. Lastly, while certain technological advancements will drive productivity gains, these technologies will also destroy or disrupt the livelihoods for many. 

Dalio urges leaders, both nationally and globally, to cooperate to confront these threats, particularly to prepare better for likely negative contingencies. He refers to the recent debt ceiling compromise and agreement that neither Democrats or Republicans fully endorsed, as offering hope for more and broader bipartisan plans to counter major national and global threats.  

We need to respond positively to political candidates who ground their messages with recognition of these five and a few other mutually agreed upon threats. Excessive emotional appeals, gamesmanship, and personal attacks will always be part of human nature and the political process, but these tactics should be called to account when they dominate legislative and administrative decision-making processes. We shouldn’t be hypocritical, either, in shouting out the tactics or antics of one political party and ignoring those of our own party or colleagues.      

It took a little idealism and a lot of pragmatism starting in the late eighteenth century to create the United States and other nations that endorsed representative governments and respect for human rights. We celebrate holidays recognizing our American freedoms, as well as our appreciation for the wisdom of our greatest leaders and the sacrifices of our veterans. To me, true patriotism and citizenship includes enduring commitment to the difficult and hard work of finding more unity as a nation. We can benefit from occasional inputs from passionate radicals of almost all stripes -- if we have enough moderating voices to point out and move beyond the limitations of the more abrasive rhetoric.